Katie Bailey is still alive. If you’ve been watching HBO Max’s Mare of Easttown, you know what we’re talking about. And you’re just as shocked as we are. Last week’s episode revealed that Katie Bailey (Caitlin Houlahan), a young woman who’s been missing from Easttown for a year, is alive and being held captive by a man in Bennie’s Tavern. But who is Katie Bailey and how did she end up in this bar? Keep reading for everything we’ve gathered about Katie Bailey from Mare of Easttown, including our theory for who the kidnapper could be.

Who is Katie Bailey?

We learned early in the season that Katie has been missing for a year and the case is still open. Mare Sheehan, the main character in the show, played by Kate Winslet, is the town’s detective but hasn’t had any luck solving this case. And she’s pretty hopeless at this point. Katie’s mother Dawn (who happened to go to high school with Mare), however, hasn’t given up hope and is pretty angry at Mare and the police in general for not doing more. Mare describes Katie as “a known drug abuser with a history of prostitution.” The photos on the missing posters show a smiling young woman. Mare acts like she’s pretty much given up on the case. “Hell, she’s probably lying at the bottom of the Delaware River right now,” she says to her boss after he tells her the county might send over a detective to help her with Katie’s case. “We’d never know.” Later on, we see Mare putting up missing posters for Katie. It’s clear that deep down, she hasn’t given up.

So, is Katie Bailey alive on Mare of Easttown?

Yup. During episode 4, we see an attack on another young woman in or around Easttown. Her name is Missy Sager. We meet Missy in a van being driven by an unidentified male. We don’t see his face or hear his voice. Missy’s working as an escort or prostitute. When she gives him the green light to make a move, he instead lunges at her and strangles her. The next time we see Missy, she’s being dragged into Bennie’s Tavern by the man with the van. He throws her into some bunker-like room. She bangs on the door screaming, and then we hear a young woman say, “No one can hear you in here.” The young woman tells Missy she’s Katie Bailey. And she’s looking worse for wear. That’s how the episode ends.

Who kidnapped Katie Bailey and Missy Sager on Mare of Easttown?

The answer to that is unknown, but obviously, it’s the same person. We do know a few things about the man: He’s white. He drives a van. He has a good head of hair. You know who else on this show is a white male with a good head of hair and a van? Who has aggressive tendencies? Tony. Brianna’s father. Remember him? Brianna is Dylan’s (Erin’s ex) current girlfriend. The one who physically attacked Erin right before she was murdered (and possibly killed her, in our opinion). Tony has shown up at Mare’s house in his van, yelling at her for accusing his daughter. He also threw a carton of milk through her window. The way he treats Mare and the few other women we’ve seen him interact with on the show, it seems he might not have the most respect for women. Deacon Mark is still looking pretty guilty, but he doesn’t drive a van.

Are Erin’s murder and Katie’s kidnapping connected?

Well, if our hunch is right, they very well could be, given Brianna’s distaste for Erin. If her father is the one kidnapping these women, there’s a good chance it’s all connected. There’s another reason they seem to be connected: Katie, Missy and Erin all had profiles on Sidedoor, an escort website (Erin had considered using this to make money to pay for her son’s ear surgery, but her best friend insisted that in the end, she didn’t go through with it). The detective brought in to replace Mare while she’s suspended doesn’t think the crimes are connected. And, to be fair, Erin’s murder could have nothing to do with Sidedoor or escorting. With three episodes left, hopefully we’ll find out soon. Next, if you love solving crimes, you’ll want to know about Crystal Theobald. 

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